Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 190.435086 226.444673 269.487335 325.347674 396.841732 486.552460 6.097067e+02
2025-09-21 148.252877 191.498934 249.189987 333.930268 459.082457 643.789131 9.508433e+02
2025-09-28 121.314609 165.632683 229.368979 331.668150 499.949323 782.656419 1.336666e+03
2025-10-05 110.183053 157.900964 231.272456 359.063995 592.227049 1038.804380 2.085054e+03
2025-10-12 100.825842 150.347799 230.855821 381.282846 682.368609 1334.619050 3.164835e+03
2025-10-19 92.483378 142.568750 227.931321 397.495048 766.430859 1664.309401 4.690896e+03
2025-10-26 84.818568 134.467973 222.565638 407.165511 840.170399 2015.930816 6.788314e+03
2025-11-02 77.611629 125.967584 214.748401 409.572531 898.129532 2366.308059 9.537949e+03
2025-11-09 70.300176 116.228713 202.865743 400.200926 923.126189 2637.212991 1.256373e+04
2025-11-16 64.064226 107.661235 191.903214 390.340952 943.599593 2913.441769 1.648022e+04
2025-11-23 58.634778 99.961674 181.536592 379.570922 957.950442 3184.191200 2.144834e+04
2025-11-30 57.486341 100.320540 187.877631 411.387088 1118.069690 4243.423323 4.043129e+04
2025-12-07 54.002197 95.817156 183.457232 415.523872 1194.174897 5034.829556 6.546902e+04
2025-12-14 51.491065 93.001752 182.388555 428.783780 1312.615370 6269.471348 1.241771e+05
2025-12-21 48.216954 88.236345 176.156101 425.938225 1369.148062 7234.629354 2.122881e+05
2025-12-28 47.597886 88.987776 182.968578 463.810801 1622.230717 10314.115428 7.378974e+05
2026-01-04 46.526200 88.622249 187.021047 494.696802 1872.041293 14331.332658 3.619866e+06
2026-01-11 45.082283 87.259128 188.355312 517.336164 2103.637931 19319.122484 3.697682e+07
2026-01-18 43.339594 85.026557 187.101570 530.881929 2301.174184 25126.125597 6.696739e+09
2026-01-25 41.337624 81.992180 183.285673 534.258343 2444.907142 31209.062317 NaN
2026-02-01 38.904449 77.726342 175.575995 521.123527 2474.912441 35343.690518 NaN
2026-02-08 36.658300 73.720474 168.119596 507.335996 2494.046959 39706.737824 NaN
2026-02-15 34.561581 69.904754 160.759934 492.313703 2496.445250 43988.803201 NaN